穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)政策?

　　Steady growth policy?

　　穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)政策不停歇 貨幣偏寬松趨勢(shì)未變

　　Policy of steady growth Monetary easing trend has not changed

　　上周上證綜指下跌13.32%，創(chuàng)下2008年6月以來(lái)的最大單周跌幅，市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)牽動(dòng)人心。此間觀察家認(rèn)為，穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)、促改革的政策紅利仍將持續(xù)釋放，資本市場(chǎng)走牛的邏輯也未發(fā)生改變，市場(chǎng)本身的調(diào)整更有利于夯實(shí)慢牛走勢(shì)，市場(chǎng)無(wú)須過(guò)度恐慌。 濟(jì)南財(cái)務(wù)咨詢公司

　　Last week the benchmark Shanghai composite index fell 13.32%, its biggest weekly drop since June 2008, market affects the heart. The observers think here, steady growth, promote reform of policy dividends will continue to release, the logic of capital market bullish, also did not change, the adjustment of the market itself is more advantageous to strengthen the slow movements of cattle, the market does not need to panic. Jinan financial consulting company

　　不少市場(chǎng)人士認(rèn)為，盡管當(dāng)前宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力依然較大，但在黨中央、國(guó)務(wù)院出臺(tái)的一系列穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)、促改革的政策引導(dǎo)下，未來(lái)財(cái)政政策將更為積極、松緊適度的貨幣政策也會(huì)持續(xù)發(fā)力，且穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)后續(xù)政策儲(chǔ)備工具充足，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速有望在三季度末觸底回升。

　　Many market participants believe that despite the current macro-economic downward pressure is still large, but in the party central committee and the state council issued a series of steady growth, structural adjustment, promote reform of policy guidance, future fiscal policy will be more positive, elastic moderate monetary policy will continue, and steady growth of the follow-up policy reserves sufficient tools, economic growth is expected to be bottoming out at the end of the third quarter.

　　就貨幣政策而言，當(dāng)前偏寬松的趨勢(shì)未變。央行[微博]研究局首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬駿近日下調(diào)全年GDP和CPI漲幅預(yù)期值，顯示盡管當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)向好趨勢(shì)，但穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)仍需政策呵護(hù)。同時(shí)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)逐步推動(dòng)貨幣政策常態(tài)化，未來(lái)資本流動(dòng)波動(dòng)可能加大，國(guó)內(nèi)利率和匯率政策推出的時(shí)點(diǎn)和力度需仔細(xì)考量這一因素。在偏寬松不變的大背景下，一方面，從常規(guī)工具觀察，利率和存款準(zhǔn)備金率仍有運(yùn)用空間;另一方面，政策可能由前期的著重總量調(diào)整轉(zhuǎn)為更注重結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化，定向政策等結(jié)構(gòu)性政策仍將保持一定力度。

　　In terms of monetary policy, the current trend of partial loose. Central bank [microblogging] research chief economist jun ma has its full-year GDP and CPI inflation expectations, shows that despite the current economic showing positive trend, but steady growth still needs policy attention. At the same time, gradually push the fed monetary policy normalization, future capital flow volatility may increase, the domestic interest rate and exchange rate policy of the launch time and efforts have to be carefully consider this factor. In partial loose unchanged under the big background, on the one hand, from the conventional tools, interest rates and deposit reserve rate is still using the space; On the other hand, the policy may be changed from early total emphatically to pay more attention to structural optimization, directional policy structural policies will still maintain a certain strength.

　　從財(cái)政政策角度看，近日國(guó)務(wù)院強(qiáng)調(diào)推進(jìn)財(cái)政資金統(tǒng)籌使用，避免資金使用“碎片化”，盤(pán)活各領(lǐng)域“沉睡”的財(cái)政資金，增加資金有效供給。這顯示在政策推動(dòng)下，未來(lái)財(cái)政政策將更積極，財(cái)政資金投放將對(duì)市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性產(chǎn)生積極作用

　　From the perspective of the fiscal policy of the state council recently emphasis on promoting the comprehensive use of financial capital, avoid using "fragmentation" funds, revitalize the "sleeping" in various fields of financial fund, increase the effective supply of funds. This shows that under the policy to promote the future fiscal policy will be more active, fiscal money will have a positive role of market liquidity

　　整體上，財(cái)政政策和貨幣政策節(jié)奏可能發(fā)生變化，但二者并非簡(jiǎn)單的此消彼長(zhǎng)，財(cái)政政策的推行需要貨幣政策的密切配合。在推行積極財(cái)政政策的過(guò)程中，只有貨幣政策配合，才能一方面為財(cái)政擴(kuò)張?zhí)峁┵Y金輔助，另一方面化解債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，維護(hù)金融穩(wěn)定，保證充足的資金供給和推動(dòng)利率下行更是缺一不可。

　　Overall, the pace of fiscal policy and monetary policy may change, but both are not simple, the implementation of fiscal policy needs the close cooperation of monetary policy. Only in the process of implementation of active fiscal policy, monetary policy coordination, to auxiliary to fund fiscal expansion on the one hand, on the other hand to resolve debt risks, maintaining financial stability, get plenty of money supply and interest rates downward is be short of one cannot.

　　此外，今年以來(lái)，政府推出一系列基建項(xiàng)目“穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)”。在基建投資加大力度的前提下，將加快經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整，推動(dòng)各項(xiàng)制度改革落地。經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整指向淘汰落后產(chǎn)能、加快新興產(chǎn)業(yè)和新型農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展，將為相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展打開(kāi)空間。深化國(guó)企改革等政策將調(diào)整利益分配格局，松綁長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)面臨的制度約束，有望釋放長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)能。

　　In addition, since this year, the government launched a series of infrastructure projects "steady growth". On the premise of infrastructure investment increasing, will speed up economic structural adjustment, promote the reform of the system of the ground. Economy structure adjustment to eliminate backward production capacity, accelerate the development of new industries and new agriculture, will open up space for related industry development. Policies, such as deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises will adjust the interest distribution pattern, loosen the institutional constraints facing the long-term economic growth, is expected to release the long-term economic growth momentum.

　　從資本市場(chǎng)角度來(lái)看，市場(chǎng)走牛的邏輯未發(fā)生改變。此前，證監(jiān)會(huì)[微博]主席肖鋼明確表示贊同A股上漲是“改革牛”的觀點(diǎn)，A股上漲是各項(xiàng)利好政策疊加的結(jié)果，有其必然性和合理性。具體來(lái)看，一方面，中央全面深化改革的各項(xiàng)舉措穩(wěn)定了市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，是股市上漲最強(qiáng)大動(dòng)力;另一方面，杠桿因素的確發(fā)揮了重要作用。證券公司銀證轉(zhuǎn)賬資金、滬港通凈流入資金以及保險(xiǎn)信托新增資金均有較多增加，特別是融資業(yè)務(wù)為股市上漲提供了資金支持。

　　From the Angle of capital market, the market bullish, logic does not change. Previously, the securities and futures commission [microblogging] chairman xiao explicitly agreed A shares rose is "reform" point of view, a-share market rise is the result of superposition of good policies, has its inevitability and rationality. Specific view, on the one hand, the measures and deepen the reform of the stability of the market expected, are the most powerful motivation rising stock market; On the other hand, leverage factors indeed played an important role. Bank-securities transfer securities company capital inflows, Shanghai port and the trust of new insurance funds have more increase, especially financing provided financial support for the rising stock market.

　　目前，深化改革的步伐仍在加快：中央深改組會(huì)議近日通過(guò)國(guó)企改革的兩份先導(dǎo)性文件，國(guó)企改革頂層設(shè)計(jì)方案落地在即;自貿(mào)區(qū)、京津冀、“一帶一路”等領(lǐng)域的改革在上半年取得實(shí)質(zhì)性進(jìn)展，未來(lái)將進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)。“改革牛”依然底氣十足。

　　At present, deepening the pace of reform is still in accelerating: central deep reorganization meeting recently two pilot file through the reform of state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises reform the top-level design of landing; Free trade zone, beijing-tianjin-hebei, "One Belt And One Road" in areas such as substantive progress was made in reforms in the first half of the year, the future will further advance. "Reform" is still very confident.

　　從杠桿因素來(lái)看，有觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為，近期監(jiān)管部門(mén)嚴(yán)查配資和兩融是引發(fā)市場(chǎng)調(diào)整的重要原因。對(duì)此應(yīng)看到，嚴(yán)查配資業(yè)務(wù)有利于維護(hù)市場(chǎng)三公原則，保證市場(chǎng)健康發(fā)展。從證監(jiān)會(huì)規(guī)范兩融業(yè)務(wù)來(lái)看，近期發(fā)布的《證券公司融資融券管理辦法(征求意見(jiàn)稿)》松緊并舉，旨在建立逆周期的市場(chǎng)調(diào)節(jié)機(jī)制。這為融資業(yè)務(wù)留下萬(wàn)億元的增長(zhǎng)空間，并將引導(dǎo)外圍杠桿資金回歸兩融，允許兩融展期將支持長(zhǎng)牛發(fā)展。這些因素的疊加會(huì)使杠桿牛市走得更穩(wěn)、更長(zhǎng)。

　　From the point of leverage factors, it is thought that the recent regulatory scrutiny with capital and two is the important reason for the market to adjust. This should see three-fair principles conducive to maintaining market scrutiny with information and business, guarantee the healthy development of the market. From the standard two integrating business, recent margin of the securities company management regulations (draft) "elastic, aims to establish counter-cyclical market regulation mechanism. This leave one trillion yuan for finance business growth space, and will guide the peripheral leverage fund return two melting, enables the two extension will support the development of the bull. The superposition of these factors can make more leverage bull market stability, longer.

　　從資本市場(chǎng)改革來(lái)看，從證券法修訂、IPO注冊(cè)制到深港通，各項(xiàng)計(jì)劃中的改革都在穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)，將為資本市場(chǎng)的市場(chǎng)化、法制化、國(guó)際化奠定基礎(chǔ)。據(jù)海通證券(23.33, 0.08, 0.34%)測(cè)算，目前A股市值/GDP為99%，而二戰(zhàn)后美國(guó)、日本、中國(guó)臺(tái)灣、中國(guó)香港等牛市指數(shù)漲幅核心區(qū)域?yàn)?0-20倍，牛市高點(diǎn)股票市值/GDP的核心區(qū)間為150%-200%。與之相比，A股仍有空間。從上述邏輯來(lái)看，在多重因素作用下，市場(chǎng)適度回調(diào)并未改變“改革牛”的邏輯，更有利于股市走出慢牛、長(zhǎng)牛行情。

　　From the point of the capital market reform, from the revised securities law, IPO registration system to deep port, are steadily push forward reform of plans, will be the marketization of capital market, legal system, internationalization. According to haitong securities (23.33, 0.08, 0.34%), the current A stock market value/GDP is 99%, and after the second world war the United States, Japan, China Taiwan, Hong Kong, China and other bull market index or core region for 10 to 20 times, the bull market high stock market capitalization/core range of 150% to 150% of GDP. There are still space, by contrast, A shares. From the above logic, under the effect of multiple factors, the market moderately callback did not change the logic of "reform", is more advantageous to get out of the long slow cattle, cattle stock market.

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